Tuesday, January 31, 2006

State of the Union

Good evening, Ladies and Gentlemen, this post is my live reaction to the President's State of the Union. I'm sitting in my living room with one of my roommates and his girlfried. To honor the solemnity and seriousness of the occassion, we've made popcorn and are drinking wine. Oh, and because I know you're all worried about the bias of our choice in news channels, we're watching the ABC broadcast.

Hooray, the glad handing has started. Extra points for anyone who can count the number of red ties in the crowd. Sounds like Cindy Sheehan got arrested for trying to turn the House Chamber into a caucus floor. Hmmm, as much as I'm not a fan of a bunch of things this administration is doing, I'm not for that.

Daaa daa daa daaa.....daaa daa da daaaa (wedding song) "Mr. Speaker, the President of the United States" Here comes the bride...dressed in a blue tie....

It's now 9:10 EST. It looks like we're about ready to start. Who would believe it. It's starting more on time than most NFL football games. But let's not be too hasty--the applause have been going on for 6 minutes now. 9:11, here we go. "Ladies and gentlemen, I have the distinct honor and priviledge to present to you the President of the United States."

And now more applause. "Mr. Speaker, VP Cheney, Congress, Diplo corps, distinguished guests and fellow citizens..." A good start, the President is recognizing Coretta Scott King's passage (which, by the way, is a creepy coincidence to have happen on the same day Alito has been confirmed). More applause.

HOLY CRAP! He just said "Rostrum"!!!!!! I don't know if he's ever said that before.

"serve with you". A good statement; showing that the executive is only one part of the 3 pieces of government. The need for civil discourse. Union Strong, together we'll make it stronger. Nice platitude, but what does it mean?

"We will not retreat from our duties in search of a comfortable life." Isolationism and protectionism seem broad and inviting--but they're not. The question is, how does the executive and Congress frame these issues?

First reference to Sept. 11th. How many more will there be tonight? "democracies join the fight against terror." So aparently Spain, France, Japan, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland aren't democracies. Hmmmm.

"Lebanon to Egypt: Debating the necessity of freedom." I thought the necessity of freedom was self evident. Thank you Mr. President. That was genious. We now enter the part of the speech where President tells us that Terrorists try to cow us by fear--and does it in a way that seems to be focused on scaring us. Again with the Freedom, and we're fighting to keep it.

It's better to fight somewhere else than to fight at home. We're always at war with Oceana, War is Peace, Love is hate, we always will be at war with Oceana. Oh, and we will never surrender to evil. Because "It's Baaad. Baaaad."

Did you all see James Lipton two seats to Laura Bush's left? Maybe it wasn't James Lipton, but it might have been Will Farrell playing him.

Rah Rah, sis-boom-ba. Viernes, Viernes, Rah Rah Rah! We're winning!!!! Wait. What? I thought we won? Didn't we declare victory? Why haven't we taken our ball and gone home? "We're off to see the wizard, the wonderful wizard of Victory" and once we see him, we can click our combat boots together three times, and say, "there's no place like home."

Message to Congress: You're either with us, or I'll nullify your election results in November. "I am the law!" It doesn't matter if you supported me before or not, you have to stand with me now, because we're at war, and a wartime President gets whatever he wants. Don't believe me, ask the ACLU.

I'm conflicted here. The President is quoting a line from a final letter from a fallen Marine. While it is important to respect the sacrifice, I also feel like its innappropriate to do so during a political speech--thus bringing the sacrifice of so many into the low and dirty political fray that is the floor of the House. Oh, and DON'T Smile during the applause. They are for the loss and sacrifice, not your words.

The U.S. supports democratic reform across the middle east. Except in Jordan or Egypt. Ooops. He's just did it. He cited Egypt. Where the main opposition won 7% of the vote. Check it out...I can't link it here, but seriously. Check it out. OH MY GOD!!!!! He went from EGYPT to SAUDI...a place (if it can be believed) EVEN LESS DEMOCRATIC.

Iran. The regime in that country... yes. They sponsor terrorism, they do some amazingly dumb things. NUCLEAR not NUKEYOULAR. But amazingly, they are the most democratic society in the Middle East. They HAVE voted, numerous times. The most fair and free election they had was in the 1950s. They elected a guy. The U.S. got rid of him and replaced him with a freaking KING. How democratic is that?

Isolation. Seems to be the buzzword of the speech tonight. He's trying to tell us that we can't go the way of isolation. This just makes me fear that the executive will, in the next 9 months, dive head-long into the Hawly-Smoot act.

Homeland Security; there's lots of people working on it. They're smart. So we're safe. I hope he starts to talk about how even our best efforts can't make it impossible to thwart attacks. Here it comes....FISA, you're a bunch of pansies!

"Terrorist surveilance program has helped prevent terrorist attacks." Except we aren't given any of the records, so the veracity of your statement can't be confirmed--or denied for that matter.

Well.... ahemm....moving on. We need the support of our friends and allies. Yup. Both of them. Britain and Micronesia. C'mon micronesia.

President to Congress; "Together, let us protect our country." And by protect, I mean you guys rubber stamp everything I say is good. Because I'm good and other stuff is evil. Evil is bad, and we should fight it.

He just said a hard sentence: "major industrialized nation." We have created more jobs than Japan. Which isn't hard, because Japan is 1/2 our population and the average age there is 42 (ours is 26). Hmmmm...how many new jobs does Japan need?

"Walling off our economy" Nahhhh....we'd rather wall off our borders--even though, "immigrants are important to this economy, even though this economy could not function without them." We should just punish them for speaking Spanish.

"Our economy grows when Americans have more money in their own pockets." Except, Mr. President, that Americans actually have Chinese money in their pockets. Our economy is growing based on Chinese loans to Americans. That's right. People who earn an average of $3 a day are loaning Americans approximately $400 billion a year.

HOLY MUTHERFU***R. Cut the deficit in half by 2009??? That means by 2009, in constant dollars, the U.S. will still be spending approximately 250 billion dollars a year more than we earn in taxes.

Now he's going to tell us that we need to privatize social security and medicare. Lets see how that goes over? "Congress did not act last year on my proposal to save Social Security." Democrats are proud of that. His big plan? A commission? These have been held by every president since, I think, Ford.

Guest worker program--is only going to work, Mr. President, if it's harder to be illegal than legal.

Wait, back to insurance and health care? After you told us that the government needs to get out of the business--even though private business and insurance are contributing to A. higher premiums and B. lower quality care. Try England, Japan, or Canada? Single payer. Easy.

OOOOH.. "America is addicted to foreign Oil." The best way to break this cycle is technology. Tonight I announce the clean energy institute. 2 ways: zero emision coal plants; solar and wind plants, "clean safe" NUKEYOUlar energy. We must also change how we power automobiles: batteries and hydrogen. Ethanol from stalks, switchgrass, woodchips. Goal; replace 75% of oil imports from the mid-east by 2025. Make oil-dependence a thing of the past.

Sorry, missed the last point. Am trying to find out how much oil we get from mid east. According to the DOE, 25% came from the mid-east in Nov '05.

Oh, physical science research. THANK THE MAKER. It's about time we beefed up sceince funding. Too bad we're doing it at a time when the budget it already overflowing the bank account. Teaching more math and science courses, early ed, professionals in a classroom. This is a good policy too. Let's just hope it gets done in a way that doesn't goof everything up.

Parents are worried about....anything. Suffering from disease, activist courts, redefining marriage, or--perhaps--the government interfering places that are best left to churches, synagogues, and mosques.

"Judges must be servants of the law, and not legislate from the bench." Only time will tell how accurate that statement was. Interesting, though, that he follows it up with an homage to O'Connor, who I believe, is retiring to pick a fight with exectutive and legislative branches around the country from circumscribing the independence and autonomy of the judiciary. Because, ladies and gents, I don't think Justice O'Connor is retiring, I think O'Connor is looking for a fight.

Ending Cloning, and a bunch of other goofy uses of science: about f'n time someone stood up and said so.

He just said AIDS can be treated and defeated. Ummm, I'm no doctor, but this doesn't sound right to me. It's great to help Americans with AIDS, but my concern is that we're not going to have anyone left in Africa because of AIDS. President's goal: no more new AIDS infections. Awfully interesting idea from a man opposed to knowledge of, use of, dissemination of, or awareness of condoms.

Closing analogy: The U.S. could have accepted the permanent division of Europe. We will not. We can turn back, or we can advance....what exactly does that mean? Nice platitude Mr. President, but really, that doesn't mean anything other than you want things to be peachy-keen. C'mon. We're a nation of doers. We need facts pal.

It's now 10:04, the President spoke for 53 minutes. Just slightly longer than a FIFA match.

If you watched the whole speech, and you've read all of my live-in-the-action comments, I apologize for the length. Regardless of whether you agree with my comments or not, I hope life finds you well at this State of the Union, and by the next one, the political discourse has made more room for us to agree.

Monday, January 30, 2006

Happy New Year (+ 2)

I realize I'm a couple days late, but I still need to say this:

Happy New Year!!!

The New Year was Sunday, and I have not excuse. I missed it. But I thought I'd take a chance here to say hi to all of my friends in Asia and around the world, and wish you each a fantastic year of the Dog.

That, and I'll take a couple lines here to update everyone on what's happening in the life of a House of Wonks. There's still 5 of us living here. We're cooking a little less often than we used to, but hopefull sometime soon work will settle down and everyone will be cooking again.

The four roommates are all busy keeping the gears of government turning in their own ways, and I'm deeply engaged in the non profit world--thinking in a tank.

All of my roommates are now in relationships, all with cool people.

In other news, I passed the Foreign Service Exam a couple weeks ago, so in a year or two, all things working out right, I'll be eligble to work for the State Department as a Foreign Service Officer. But that's a long way out, so I'm not too worried.

I'm not really good at writing about people, so I'm going to cut it off here. Sorry for subjecting everything to this... I'll be back to policy next time.

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Diplomacy by Compromise

Yes, that's right.  Diplomacy is about compromise.
 
And judging by what Dep. Secretary of State Robert Zoellick had to say about his recent picture with a panda cub at the Chengdu Giant Panda Breeding Research Base, it's not the kind of compromise one might expect.
 
None of this high-fallutin nation-to-nation negotiation.  It's not about ensuring ambassadors and heads-of-state send and receive the correct symbols from speeches and actions.  According to Zoellick, diplomacy is about something far more fundamental.  According to the Washington Post,
 
"Some aides had questioned whether the image was the right one to convey, he acknowledged, but he decided to go ahead because his wife wanted a photo of him with a panda."
 
Zoellicks' response?  "At my age, I listen to my wife."
 
I guess it is true.  Women do run the world.

Sunday, January 22, 2006

Trust, Faith, and Politics

The Left is on the rise again in South America, after years (or decades, or centuries) of 'establishment' leadership, there are left-leaning (or lunging) presidents in Brazil, Chile, Bolivia, and likely in Peru soon as well.

The Post had an article about Evo Morales' inauguration, but the part that struck me was the following quote.

"All of the other governments we have had in this country have been corrupt and have stolen from the people," said Felix Flores, an unemployed 60-year-old Quechua Indian who traveled to La Paz from Cochabamba to celebrate in Plaza San Francisco with thousands of others. "With all of that money they robbed, they could have created sources for jobs. Now Evo will."
There are moments in a people's political life when there is a convergence of a political figure and the mood of the country that allows a uniting. From the sounds of opinion polls in Bolivia, this is what they've got going on (Morales has 74% approval ratings according to a Bolivian polling firm). There is something uplifting in this.

A people (indigenous Bolivians) who have been oppressed, suppressed, and repressed by rulers and governments for hundreds of years finally believe it is time for their voice to be heard, and their issues addressed. I certainly hope they are rewarded for placing their faith in Morales, but I fear that, like so many situations before, their hopes will come to nothing.

Not because Morales doesn't have excellent intentions, or because he isn't capable of implementing the types of reforms people want. But because the solutions people seek to problems are frequently excellent solutions to the wrong problems.

One of the geniouses of the American system is the division of power--not just within the federal government, but through states and down to municipalities. There is constant give and take of power; people are empowered to change their world at numerous levels and on different scales. This diffusion of power allows us the opportunity to pursue changes in various ways, and even allows different cities or towns in the same county to develop different solutions to similar problems.

Too often governments that have been centralized, or where power has been wielded by a military dictatorship (as happened throughout much of South America at some point in the past 30 years) no mechanisms for this type of differentiated solutions. Municipalities are frequently expected to respond in similar ways, discounting local variations in attitude, interest, or even in problem. While macro-level tax changes and wealth redistribution will undoubtedly benefit some people and hurt others, it might help and hurt out of proportion to the desired effect depending on local circumstances.

The point I'm trying to make here is that a President (of any country) only has so much power to wield, wave the magic wand, and make everything better through policy. Much of the work of a president, is to establish, maintain, or create autonomy and encourage initiative in local levels of government to allow people to seek solutions to their problems at many places rather than hoping that a single government agent (the President) can fix everything on his/her own.

Saturday, January 21, 2006

Fighting for what?

I keep a mental list of things I don't understand. It's long, and it's getting longer. But here's one I've been mulling over for a few days: terrorism, jihad, and the mujahideen. I certainly don't understand what about dieing in a blaze of glory, while taking out bystanders, civilians, women and children is attractive about the martyrdom promised by bin Laden. More specifically though, I don't know what the "jihadists" are fighting for.

Sure, they're fighting against America. Against our presence in Saudi Arabia, against our military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. They are against our support for Israel. Oddly enough, they had no problem when we supplied the Taliban and other militias in Afghanistan with billions of dollars to fight the Soviet Army. They have no problem with the United States providing as much aid to Egypt as we do to Israel. They have no problem in allowing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the other oil producing states in the Gulf reap BILLIONS of dollars a year from U.S. (and British and Spanish) oil consumers. They have no problem when these same states use the money to build lavish palaces for the royal families while not investing in schools, hospitals, or opportunities for their entire populace.

So what are the jihadists fighting for?

Any student of politics or war (because they're really extensions of each other. Ask Clauswitz.) can tell you that pursuing a negative campaign wont achieve much. In case there are doubts, look at how successful the Democrats and Republicans have been at achieving their political agendas lately in the U.S. Both are pursuing a "not what the other guy wants" strategy, and so that's what's been achieved: nothing.

In the latest installment of a long chain of bin Laden videos, he suggests there should be a truce between the West and al Qaeda. (I didn't know that a state could achieve a truce with a network, (Oh no,...not ORACLE!!!) but that's beside the point.)

"In this truce, both parties will enjoy security and stability and we will build Iraq and Afghanistan, which were destroyed by the war"
I'm going to have to call you on that on Osama. I don't think most people around the world would rather have a country rebuilt by al Qaeda and the Taliban when given the option of having the western world involved. Both sides have a track record, so let's compare. Maybe I'm wrong.
Countries built/rebuilt/influence by al Qaeda and the Taliban:
Afghanistan:
2004 GDP per capita: $800. It's on the rise this year thanks to a good poppy (opium) crop. Even the CIA lists opium as Afghanistan's most common crop.
Median Age: less than 18
Literacy: 36% (21% of women).

Sudan:
GDP per capita: $2,100 (up over $1,000 per person since 1996 when GDP/capita was
$794. 1998 marked the end of significant al Qaeda ties to Sudan's government after the embassy bombings and subsequent U.S. strike against AQ forces in Sudan).
Median Age: 18
Literacy: 61.1% (50% of women)

Countries rebuilt by U.S./the West:
Japan:
GDP per Capita: $30,400 (up from approximately zero, when Japan surrendered to the U.S. in 1945)
Median Age: 42
Literacy: 99%

Germany:
GDP per Capita: $29,700 (up from near zero at the end of World War Two, and even though the West of the country has suffered significant economic challenges since reunification with the East 14 years ago).
Median age: 42
Literacy: 99%

One question: who's track record do you think people around the world would rather trust? The success and resources of the United States and the Western world, or the history and resources the Taliban?


Monday, January 16, 2006

800 Pound Gorillas

Not just one, but a whole pack of them are sitting in this story in the Washington Post.

Complying with the general theme of what I write here, the story is about China. This time U.S.-China relations and trade.

(Gorilla #1) It was announced that China's currency reserves are greater than $800 billion dollars. That is the equivalent of over 10% of China's estimated GDP. Part of the growth was spurred on by (Gorillia #2) China having to buy foreign currency to counteract its BOOMING export sector. China's trade surplus (the amount it sold to other countries minus what it bought from other countries) last year was $102 billion.

And so begins the name calling. U.S. manufactoring companies are complaining that the Chinese Yuan is undervalued--which generally would stand to reason--because a country that has ENORMOUS exports like China does, normally suffers consequences like currency valuation increasing because of all the goods flowing out and money flowing in.

So why doesn't China's Yuan increase in value (making Chinese goods more expensive, and giving American manufactorers a chance to compete)?

In large part because (Gorilla #3) of U.S. deficit spending. It's all well and good to want to fight wars (remember this war? or this one--page 4), cut taxes, and create one of the largest government expansions since FDR, but there is always going to be a consequence.

The consequence for the U.S. is that China's currency (which is substantially linked to the dollar) doesn't increase in value because the Chinese take much of the foreign currency it accumulates through exporting, and buys up U.S. debt. The result of this is that, ultimately, the money stays in the U.S. economy, not the Chinese economy, so they're currency doesn't have to change, and there is no market-based reason for ours to.

Ironically, then, the way to make American business competative globally again is to raise taxes. This would lower our deficit, limiting China's ability to buy our debt, and forcing them to either A. revalue their currency, or B. invest in our stock market giving our businesses the benefit of their capital. Another option would be to drastically reduce the size of the federal government. Here are some programs that are about the size of our estimated annual deficit that would help give us back our advantage:

  • the Defense Department
  • Social Security
  • Medicare and Medicaid
  • Everything Else
Believe it or not, each of these categories ends up being about 1/3 of the budget, or $400 billion dollars. And no, that's not a typo. The government spends about 33% more than it takes in every year, which means our budget is 133% of our tax revenue. Just let Congress know which of those you're willing to give up. I'm sure they can use a few good ideas. Otherwise, get ready for the Chinese to own a good sized chunk of the U.S.

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Summertime in Chile

It's a nice time of year in Chile--if you like ultra hot temperatures. At least that's what I'm to believe from reading newspapers and getting reports from family members who decided that Minnesota winters just aren't as much fun without a bit of summer thrown in.

Even though I am a good Minnesotan, and can talk about the weather for hours on end, this is about something a bit more significant.

One of the great villains of the 20th century has, again, made it back to the headlines. And, again, is on the verge of being tried for crimes he committed, or crimes that were committed on his behalf.

That's right, General Pinochet had his immunity stripped so he could face trial in the case of the murder of two of democratically Elected President Salvador Allende's body guards.

It's never a bad thing when criminals are held to account. I keep holding out hope that one day soon, Pinochet will.

Monday, January 09, 2006

Free Trade, from the bottom?

I was commenting yesterday that I felt like I hadn't written anything in a long time--because I hadn't.  So I sat down and plunked on the keyboard for about 2 hours instead of going to bed at a reasonable hour.  It may just be coincidence, but all sorts of things are catching my eye today. 

Here's a piece in the Christian Science Monitor, by a Chilean presidential candidate. 
 
It's a good assessment of the potential benefits to small (developing) countries, should an equitable version of free trade be enacted on a broad scope. 
 
Equally amazing to me is that a U.S. publication is publishing the thoughts and ideas of a political CANDIDATE from the developing world--amazing the voices that are heard some days.
 
 

Ice and more Ice...but it's pretty!

The BBC has a good pictoral spread of Harbin's Ice Sculpture festival online today. I hope it stays up for a while, because the festival is an absolutely breathtaking monument to what people are willing to do to break up winter monotony.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/4587618.stm

I mean, St. Paul has an annual winter carnival, where we search through snow drifts to find a medallion; we bundle up the kids to send them down an ice slide; we even go "overboard" every 10 or 20 years and put up an "Ice palace" about which we are very proud. But all the Ice Palaces St. Paul has ever built would fit nicely as about 1/2 of one year's sculpture and ice architecture in Harbin.

I can't imagine there are too many more places with as many people as Harbin where the winters are that cold for that long. I visited a couple years ago for the festival, and the average temp while I was there (high or low, it doesn't really matter) was about -25 F. At night when the sculptures look the best it was probably closer to -40 F. Let's just say it was cold enough that the battery in my digital camera only lasted about 15 minutes--and I had it in the inside pocket of my inside coat (yes, I was wearing 2).

Anyway, look at the pictures. They give at least a tiny glimpse of what the place is like.