Happy New Year (+ 2)

I realize I'm a couple days late, but I still need to say this:

Happy New Year!!!

The New Year was Sunday, and I have not excuse. I missed it. But I thought I'd take a chance here to say hi to all of my friends in Asia and around the world, and wish you each a fantastic year of the Dog.

That, and I'll take a couple lines here to update everyone on what's happening in the life of a House of Wonks. There's still 5 of us living here. We're cooking a little less often than we used to, but hopefull sometime soon work will settle down and everyone will be cooking again.

The four roommates are all busy keeping the gears of government turning in their own ways, and I'm deeply engaged in the non profit world--thinking in a tank.

All of my roommates are now in relationships, all with cool people.

In other news, I passed the Foreign Service Exam a couple weeks ago, so in a year or two, all things working out right, I'll be eligble to work for the State Department as a Foreign Service Officer. But that's a long way out, so I'm not too worried.

I'm not really good at writing about people, so I'm going to cut it off here. Sorry for subjecting everything to this... I'll be back to policy next time.

Diplomacy by Compromise

Yes, that's right.  Diplomacy is about compromise.

 

And judging by what Dep. Secretary of State Robert Zoellick had to say about his recent picture with a panda cub at the Chengdu Giant Panda Breeding Research Base, it's not the kind of compromise one might expect.

 

None of this high-fallutin nation-to-nation negotiation.  It's not about ensuring ambassadors and heads-of-state send and receive the correct symbols from speeches and actions.  According to Zoellick, diplomacy is about something far more fundamental.  According to the Washington Post,

 

"Some aides had questioned whether the image was the right one to convey, he acknowledged, but he decided to go ahead because his wife wanted a photo of him with a panda."

 

Zoellicks' response?  "At my age, I listen to my wife."

 

I guess it is true.  Women do run the world.

Trust, Faith, and Politics

The Left is on the rise again in South America, after years (or decades, or centuries) of 'establishment' leadership, there are left-leaning (or lunging) presidents in Brazil, Chile, Bolivia, and likely in Peru soon as well.

The Post had an article about Evo Morales' inauguration, but the part that struck me was the following quote.

"All of the other governments we have had in this country have been corrupt and have stolen from the people," said Felix Flores, an unemployed 60-year-old Quechua Indian who traveled to La Paz from Cochabamba to celebrate in Plaza San Francisco with thousands of others. "With all of that money they robbed, they could have created sources for jobs. Now Evo will."

There are moments in a people's political life when there is a convergence of a political figure and the mood of the country that allows a uniting. From the sounds of opinion polls in Bolivia, this is what they've got going on (Morales has 74% approval ratings according to a Bolivian polling firm). There is something uplifting in this.

A people (indigenous Bolivians) who have been oppressed, suppressed, and repressed by rulers and governments for hundreds of years finally believe it is time for their voice to be heard, and their issues addressed. I certainly hope they are rewarded for placing their faith in Morales, but I fear that, like so many situations before, their hopes will come to nothing.

Not because Morales doesn't have excellent intentions, or because he isn't capable of implementing the types of reforms people want. But because the solutions people seek to problems are frequently excellent solutions to the wrong problems.

One of the geniouses of the American system is the division of power--not just within the federal government, but through states and down to municipalities. There is constant give and take of power; people are empowered to change their world at numerous levels and on different scales. This diffusion of power allows us the opportunity to pursue changes in various ways, and even allows different cities or towns in the same county to develop different solutions to similar problems.

Too often governments that have been centralized, or where power has been wielded by a military dictatorship (as happened throughout much of South America at some point in the past 30 years) no mechanisms for this type of differentiated solutions. Municipalities are frequently expected to respond in similar ways, discounting local variations in attitude, interest, or even in problem. While macro-level tax changes and wealth redistribution will undoubtedly benefit some people and hurt others, it might help and hurt out of proportion to the desired effect depending on local circumstances.

The point I'm trying to make here is that a President (of any country) only has so much power to wield, wave the magic wand, and make everything better through policy. Much of the work of a president, is to establish, maintain, or create autonomy and encourage initiative in local levels of government to allow people to seek solutions to their problems at many places rather than hoping that a single government agent (the President) can fix everything on his/her own.

Fighting for what?

I keep a mental list of things I don't understand. It's long, and it's getting longer. But here's one I've been mulling over for a few days: terrorism, jihad, and the mujahideen. I certainly don't understand what about dieing in a blaze of glory, while taking out bystanders, civilians, women and children is attractive about the martyrdom promised by bin Laden. More specifically though, I don't know what the "jihadists" are fighting for.

Sure, they're fighting against America. Against our presence in Saudi Arabia, against our military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. They are against our support for Israel. Oddly enough, they had no problem when we supplied the Taliban and other militias in Afghanistan with billions of dollars to fight the Soviet Army. They have no problem with the United States providing as much aid to Egypt as we do to Israel. They have no problem in allowing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the other oil producing states in the Gulf reap BILLIONS of dollars a year from U.S. (and British and Spanish) oil consumers. They have no problem when these same states use the money to build lavish palaces for the royal families while not investing in schools, hospitals, or opportunities for their entire populace.

So what are the jihadists fighting for?

Any student of politics or war (because they're really extensions of each other. Ask Clauswitz.) can tell you that pursuing a negative campaign wont achieve much. In case there are doubts, look at how successful the Democrats and Republicans have been at achieving their political agendas lately in the U.S. Both are pursuing a "not what the other guy wants" strategy, and so that's what's been achieved: nothing.

In the latest installment of a long chain of bin Laden videos, he suggests there should be a truce between the West and al Qaeda. (I didn't know that a state could achieve a truce with a network, (Oh no,...not ORACLE!!!) but that's beside the point.)

"In this truce, both parties will enjoy security and stability and we will build Iraq and Afghanistan, which were destroyed by the war"

I'm going to have to call you on that on Osama. I don't think most people around the world would rather have a country rebuilt by al Qaeda and the Taliban when given the option of having the western world involved. Both sides have a track record, so let's compare. Maybe I'm wrong.
Countries built/rebuilt/influence by al Qaeda and the Taliban:
Afghanistan:
2004 GDP per capita: $800. It's on the rise this year thanks to a good poppy (opium) crop. Even the CIA lists opium as Afghanistan's most common crop.
Median Age: less than 18
Literacy: 36% (21% of women).

Sudan:
GDP per capita: $2,100 (up over $1,000 per person since 1996 when GDP/capita was $794. 1998 marked the end of significant al Qaeda ties to Sudan's government after the embassy bombings and subsequent U.S. strike against AQ forces in Sudan).
Median Age: 18
Literacy: 61.1% (50% of women)

Countries rebuilt by U.S./the West:
Japan:
GDP per Capita: $30,400 (up from approximately zero, when Japan surrendered to the U.S. in 1945)
Median Age: 42
Literacy: 99%

Germany:
GDP per Capita: $29,700 (up from near zero at the end of World War Two, and even though the West of the country has suffered significant economic challenges since reunification with the East 14 years ago).
Median age: 42
Literacy: 99%

One question: who's track record do you think people around the world would rather trust? The success and resources of the United States and the Western world, or the history and resources the Taliban?

800 Pound Gorillas

Not just one, but a whole pack of them are sitting in this story in the Washington Post.

Complying with the general theme of what I write here, the story is about China. This time U.S.-China relations and trade.

(Gorilla #1) It was announced that China's currency reserves are greater than $800 billion dollars. That is the equivalent of over 10% of China's estimated GDP. Part of the growth was spurred on by (Gorillia #2) China having to buy foreign currency to counteract its BOOMING export sector. China's trade surplus (the amount it sold to other countries minus what it bought from other countries) last year was $102 billion.

And so begins the name calling. U.S. manufactoring companies are complaining that the Chinese Yuan is undervalued--which generally would stand to reason--because a country that has ENORMOUS exports like China does, normally suffers consequences like currency valuation increasing because of all the goods flowing out and money flowing in.

So why doesn't China's Yuan increase in value (making Chinese goods more expensive, and giving American manufactorers a chance to compete)?

In large part because (Gorilla #3) of U.S. deficit spending. It's all well and good to want to fight wars (remember this war? or this one--page 4), cut taxes, and create one of the largest government expansions since FDR, but there is always going to be a consequence.

The consequence for the U.S. is that China's currency (which is substantially linked to the dollar) doesn't increase in value because the Chinese take much of the foreign currency it accumulates through exporting, and buys up U.S. debt. The result of this is that, ultimately, the money stays in the U.S. economy, not the Chinese economy, so they're currency doesn't have to change, and there is no market-based reason for ours to.

Ironically, then, the way to make American business competative globally again is to raise taxes. This would lower our deficit, limiting China's ability to buy our debt, and forcing them to either A. revalue their currency, or B. invest in our stock market giving our businesses the benefit of their capital. Another option would be to drastically reduce the size of the federal government. Here are some programs that are about the size of our estimated annual deficit that would help give us back our advantage:

• the Defense Department
• Social Security
• Medicare and Medicaid
• Everything Else

Believe it or not, each of these categories ends up being about 1/3 of the budget, or $400 billion dollars. And no, that's not a typo. The government spends about 33% more than it takes in every year, which means our budget is 133% of our tax revenue. Just let Congress know which of those you're willing to give up. I'm sure they can use a few good ideas. Otherwise, get ready for the Chinese to own a good sized chunk of the U.S.

Summertime in Chile

It's a nice time of year in Chile--if you like ultra hot temperatures. At least that's what I'm to believe from reading newspapers and getting reports from family members who decided that Minnesota winters just aren't as much fun without a bit of summer thrown in.

Even though I am a good Minnesotan, and can talk about the weather for hours on end, this is about something a bit more significant.

One of the great villains of the 20th century has, again, made it back to the headlines. And, again, is on the verge of being tried for crimes he committed, or crimes that were committed on his behalf.

That's right, General Pinochet had his immunity stripped so he could face trial in the case of the murder of two of democratically Elected President Salvador Allende's body guards.

It's never a bad thing when criminals are held to account. I keep holding out hope that one day soon, Pinochet will.

Free Trade, from the bottom?

I was commenting yesterday that I felt like I hadn't written anything in a long time--because I hadn't.  So I sat down and plunked on the keyboard for about 2 hours instead of going to bed at a reasonable hour.  It may just be coincidence, but all sorts of things are catching my eye today. 

Here's a piece in the Christian Science Monitor, by a Chilean presidential candidate. 

 

It's a good assessment of the potential benefits to small (developing) countries, should an equitable version of free trade be enacted on a broad scope. 

 

Equally amazing to me is that a U.S. publication is publishing the thoughts and ideas of a political CANDIDATE from the developing world--amazing the voices that are heard some days.

 

 

Ice and more Ice...but it's pretty!

The BBC has a good pictoral spread of Harbin's Ice Sculpture festival online today. I hope it stays up for a while, because the festival is an absolutely breathtaking monument to what people are willing to do to break up winter monotony.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/4587618.stm

I mean, St. Paul has an annual winter carnival, where we search through snow drifts to find a medallion; we bundle up the kids to send them down an ice slide; we even go "overboard" every 10 or 20 years and put up an "Ice palace" about which we are very proud. But all the Ice Palaces St. Paul has ever built would fit nicely as about 1/2 of one year's sculpture and ice architecture in Harbin.

I can't imagine there are too many more places with as many people as Harbin where the winters are that cold for that long. I visited a couple years ago for the festival, and the average temp while I was there (high or low, it doesn't really matter) was about -25 F. At night when the sculptures look the best it was probably closer to -40 F. Let's just say it was cold enough that the battery in my digital camera only lasted about 15 minutes--and I had it in the inside pocket of my inside coat (yes, I was wearing 2).

Anyway, look at the pictures. They give at least a tiny glimpse of what the place is like.